Why. You. Just. Can NOT. Predict. Indian. Election. Results!

The votes are in! While many expected the Doctor to be raising his hand for the trademark (if not cliched) victory sign, few would have anticipated it barely a few hours after election results were released.

Even the most optimistic UPA figures (including those thought by themselves) did not exceed the 240 mark. Regional Heavyweights like Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD and Jayalalitha of the AIADMK were being courted as allies in either an internal or external support structure to help the coalition cross the magic 272 figure mark. Of course, the results of May 16, stripped the 'kingmakers' of their regal rewards.

To recap the results,
UPA - 262 seats (+43 since GE 2004)
NDA - 157 seats (-23)
Third Front - 57 seats (-22)
BSP - 21 seats (+2)
Others - 17 seats

To compare the results with MIP Predictions,
UPA outperformed by 67 seats
NDA underperformed by 32 seats
Third Front underperformed by 43 seats
BSP underperfomed by 11 seats
Others outperformed by 7 seats

To explore where the actual results deviated from the expected, it is quite clear that the UPA's increase of seats was a direct steal from the share of its competitors, the need-for-rejuvenation NDA and the need-for-any-kind-of-stability Third Front. The Congress Party in itself, had a fantastic performance taking a total of 206 seats across the nation. The last time the Congress had such a result, the dynamic Rajiv Gandhi was at the helm. Credit is definitely due to the Congress for beating the BJP, party-for-party, by a margin of 90 seats, which can only be a termed as an absolute drumming.

Lets dive in further to analyze the UPA results.

1. The Trinamool Congress chipped in as the most valuable ally with 19 seats. The alliance with the Congress, helped it take over West Bengal, long regarded as a Left Stronghold (through the CPM).

2. The DMK came a close second with 18 seats in Tamil Nadu, exactly double of Amma's return with the AIADMK.

3. Very strong performance by the UPA (>80% of seats) in the states of:
Andhra Pradesh (95%)
Haryana (90%)
Rajasthan (80%)
Jammu & Kashmir (83%)
Kerala (80%)
Delhi (100%)
Uttrakhand (100%)

4. Strong performance by the UPA (>60% of seats) in the states of:
Punjab (62%)
West Bengal (62%)
Tamil Nadu (69%)

5. Moderate performance by the UPA (>30% of seats) in the states of:
Gujuart (42%)
Maharashtra (52%)
Madhya Pradesh (41%)
Orissa (29%)

6. Weak performance by the UPA (<30% of seats) in the states of:
Uttar Pradesh (26%)
Jharkand (21%)
Karnataka (21%)
Himachal Pradesh (25%)

Do note that this weak performance only represents arithmetic numbers. In reality, the UPA has perfomed exceptionally well to even get this 20-30% share in some states like UP or Karnataka. The dominance of regional heavyweights are often the cause of a poor show by national parties.

The UPA had very few Zeros - Small North-Eastern States like Sikkim and Nagaland and Union Territories like Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Daman & Diu.

The Final scorecard of the UPA reads as: 7-3-4-4 (only taking major states into account).

Comparing the results to GE 2004, the main increases of the UPA were:
Uttar Pradesh (200% increase)
Punjab (300% increase)
Rajasthan (400% increase)
Jammu & Kashmir (150% increase)
Kerala (a phenomenal 1500% increase, the tally of only 1 seat in 2004 rising to 16 in 2009)
West Bengal (333% increase)
Madhya Pradesh (200% increase)
Orissa (100% increase)

The main declines were seen in:
Bihar (93% decrease)
Jharkand (75% decrease)
Tamil Nadu (25% decrease)
Himachal Pradesh (67% decrease)

While the UPA camp is a happy one, the NDA is hardly 'Shining'. The BJP itself fell from its 2004 position of 138 seats to 116 seats. Some reasons for the dismal performance of the NDA:

1. The departure of Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) from the NDA weakened the chances of getting seats in Orissa. The BJD ultimately got 14 out of the 21 seats in Orissa, with the NDA failing to capture even 1.

2. Poor performance of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. While in power via the Badals in the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP-SAD combo failed to take over Punjab. The alliance only gave 5 out of the 13 seats, with the UPA securing the remaining 8.

3. Failure to do well in South India. While the Congress enjoys a pan-India reputation, the BJP is largely a North India party catering to the Hindi heartland. In South India (barring Karnataka), the NDA took a real whacking. 2 seats of 42 in Andhra Pradesh, none in Kerala or Tamil Nadu have practically cost it the election. In the same 3 states, the UPA took a mammoth 83 out of the 101 seats.

A more detailed state-wise analysis of the NDA:

1. Very strong performance by the NDA (>80% of seats) in the states of:
Bihar (80%)
Chhatisgarh (91%)

2. Strong performance by the NDA (>60% of the seats) in the states of:
Karnataka (68%)
Himachal Pradesh (75%)

3. Moderate performance by the NDA (>30% of the seats) in the states of:
Gujuarat (58%)
Jharkand (57%)
Punjab (38%)
Maharashtra (42%)
Madhya Pradesh (55%)
Assam (36%)

4. Weak perfomance by the NDA (<30% of the seats) in the states of:
Uttar Pradesh (19%)
Andhra Pradesh (5%)
Rajasthan (16%)
West Bengal (2%)

The NDA had much more 0s than the UPA. In Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Kerala, Orissa and several North-Eastern states, the NDA failed to register a single seat. With a scorecard of 2-2-6-4 can hardly compete with the 7-3-4-4 of the UPA.

But the NDA arent the biggest losers of this campaign. Not by a long shot. See the results of the Left and try and not think about the words 'crushing defeat'. Quite tough.

The CPI and the CPM in total polled 24 seats, a 29 seat decline from the 53 seats captured in 2004. The Communist bastions of Kerala and West Bengal are now UPA strongholds. In Kerala, the Left only took 20% of the seats, while in West Bengal, its 35% capture was insufficient to block the advances of the UPA. It was quite amazing to see Prakash Karat pull off a faint smile, while reporters all over for screeching questions about the reasons for this defeat.

Now that we are on the Losers column, let us also talk about the heartland trio - Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Jan Shakti Party.

The SP saw a fall of 13 seats to end with 23 seats. Perhaps Mulayam Singh Yadav's idea of removing computers and teaching of English was not as visionary as he thought.

Lalu's RJD was embarassed with a 20 seat loss, ending with simply 4 seats. The ex-Railways Minister will find no place for himself in the Cabinet this time around.

If the RJD was embarassed, the LJP was humiliated. Ram Vilas Paswan's party lost his 4 seats and has failed to find representation in the Lok Sabha.

Sharad Pawar of the NCP has been remarkably quiet about his chances for the Top Job. He probably realized that his party's return of 9 seats was not impressive in an alliance of 262 seats.

The most quiet person of this elections has probably been Mayawati. While the Bahujan Samaj Party got a decent return of 21 seats, there is no reason for the UPA to invite her to join the alliance. External support may be considered for the UPA to cross the 272 mark, but she is not going to have as imporant a role in the national polity as she would have hoped for. The BSP is also quite weak outside of the UP, its only other seat coming in Madhya Pradesh.

Special mention to Nitish Kumar, whose JD(U) in Bihar won 20 out of the 40 seats. The Lalu era is practically over, and Nitish's popularity continues to rise.

Rahul Gandhi's work in UP seems to have paid off well. He seems at ease in the Engine of the Congress, and seems to getting the right seasoning. Lets hope Rajiv's son has inherited many of his father's qualities.

The 'Brat' (Varun Gandhi) won the Pilihibit Constituency by receiving 49.79% of the total votes casted (over 4.19 lakh votes). MIP's Idol-in-Chief Shashi Tharoor is also an MP now, winning the Trivandrum constituency in Kerala. Tharoor beat his nearest rival by over 1 lakh votes. Meera Sanyal, however, did not enjoy success. She barely polled over 5000 votes, and quite easily beaten by the incumbent Milind Deora.

To end this mammoth article, MIP would like to congratulate the UPA and the Congress, for their excellent results. While personal opinion supports the NDA and the BJP, MIP realizes the need for stability and continuity and prefers a government that will not have to face no-confidence motions any time its allies feel like making a U-turn. Well done. Heres hoping to 5 more years of India Shining! :P

Before I forget, isnt this picture really, really funny?

Know your MP!

Do you know your MP?

Well I do know the name of my constituency's (Chandigarh) representative - Pawan Kumar Bansal. And I do know that he's part of the Indian National Congress. Apart from that, I confess I don't really know anything.

But perhaps maybe we should care a bit more. We do tend to spend too much time looking at affairs at the Centre level; will the Left rejoin the UPA this time around? Fascinating political stuff no doubt, but not one to directly impact our everyday lives. Our own local MP - slightly more relevant!

Every election has its fair share of independent candidates, more than what you think. They usually have low profiles, low finances, hardly a clear political mandate, and ultimately tend to fail miserably at the ballot box. But a few times, some committed independents do stand a chance - when the electorate is fed up of the existing options and the new option resembles a breath of fresh air.

Take the case of Meera Sanyal, whose enjoyed a lot of publicity recently. The current Chief Executive of ABN Amro in India, Sanyal has taken a sabbatical from work and has announced her candidature in the upcoming General Elections of 2009 from the South Mumbai constituency. Inspired by the outburst of the general public in the aftermath of the 26/11 terrorist attacks, Sanyal's campaign slogan is 'lets get Mumbai back on track'. She proclaims her 'Punch-a-mantra' as -

1. More Investment for Infrastructure in Mumbai
2. A Radically Improved Public Transport System
3. Stronger Security
4. Systemic Reforms through the Nagara Raj Bill
5. Directly Elected and Empowered Mayor

See something different? Any mention of reservations in educational institutions for any particular caste? What about points for or against the Indo-US Nuclear Deal? What about 'realistic claims' like fixing the price of rice of Rs. 2 per kg?

In fact, there are no national issues at stake here. All 5 points concern MUMBAI, which happens to be the very location of the seat being contested. Before deriding the sarcasm, do think how many other candidates talk seriously about local issues. And when do you ever listen to them? I'm pretty sure if youre a BJP / Congress supporter, you'll vote for pretty much anyone who your preferred party will put up to contest the elections. Kumar this time, Raj the next, who cares about the guy? After all, isnt it more important to make sure the right party comes to power at the Centre?

Not quite. Let me refresh what I wrote in an earlier article (System Overhaul?)-

'The point of parliamentary democracy is to choose your own area's representatives. These representatives, based on ideologies are members of political parties. And the party with the most number of seats in the national assembly chooses a representative to lead the government, and effectively, the country.'

It makes more sense to vote for who the right MP is. And if you agree so much with your preferred party, you really should agree with their candidate, right?

Sanyal's announcement has gained national publicity. Her idea is good, tackling real issues is what politics is intended to be. But dont fool yourself into thinking that she is a front runner. The odds are still stacked against her. She might have the support of the English-speaking, but in a representative democracy, the masses are what win you the seat. And wherever the masses are involved, a huge amount of unpredictability follows. MIP does wish Sanyal luck, if she is true to her word, Mumbai will stand to benefit greatly.

But what about all you other readers residing in different parts of the country? Do you know your MP? Well very simply, just long on to - http://www.hindustantimes.com/Loksabha2009/

Type in your location to personalize your election page. A resident of Kolkata, after simply trying 'Kolkata' will get access to all 42 MP's from West Bengal. If you live in the 'Calcutta North East' constituency, simply click on the name of the constituency and you will see that your MP is Mohammed Salim, a 46 year old representative of the CPI(M), attended 87% of Parliamentary meetings, and participated in 59 Parliamentary debates.

Similarly, you can see 'Development Data' as of 2008, compared with that of 2004, to see the progress made under the incumbent MP. Lastly, Hindustan Times provided location-customized election news. So now you can keep track of the politics concerning the area where you reside!

Go ahead, have a look. Know more about your MP. Judge for yourself from the development data whether he's done a good job. The General Elections are for determining the next National Government, but are also for determining the fates of 552 constituencies all around the country.