Why Shashi Tharoor Is So Damn Good!

An excerpt from Shashi Tharoor's novel 'India - From Midnight to the Millenium and Beyond':

"There are many of us, but, among India's multitudes , we are few. We have grown up in the cities in India, secure a national identity rather than a local one, which we express in English better than in any Indian language. We rejoice in the complexity and diversity of our India, of which we feel a conscious part; we have friends of every caste and religious community, and we marry such sectarian lines. We see the poverty, suffering, and conflict in which a majority of our fellow citizens are mired, and we clamor for new solutions to these old problems, solutions we believe can come from the skills and efficiency of the modern world. We are secular, not in the sense that we are irreligious or unaware of the forces of religion, but in that we believe religion should not determine public policy or individual opportunity.

And, in Indian politics, we are pretty much irrelevant.

We dont get a look in. We dont enter the fray because we cant win. We tell ourselves ruefully that we are able, but not electable. We dont have the votes: there are too few of us, and we dont speak the idiom of the masses. Instead we have learned to talk about political issues without the expectation that we will be able to do anything about them.

Until Rajiv Gandhi, the accidental Prime Minister, came to power."

The first photograph shows Pandit Nehru with his young grandson Rajiv, not knowing that after almost forty years, the toddler would be leading his country as well. The second is a familiar picture of Rajiv Gandhi in power, a comforting sight to many educated Indians, but also a picture where you conclude that Indian politics is too foul for the clean hearted.

Mother India

With such a heading, you would expect this article to be about the woman on the right; India's third Prime Minister, daughter of the first, imposer of the Emergency and all round most recognizable woman in the country Indira Priyadarshini Gandhi. But this is not about her, it is about the woman in the centre, who was seen (at that time) as the last person to be India's most relevant political authority (arguably) on the Silver Jubilee of her mother-in-law's death.

Born in Lusiana, Italy, Sonia Maino met Rajiv Gandhi when she was studying at an English language institute in Cambridge, England. As Rajiv had no initial interest in politics and was more focused on being a pilot, both Sonia and himself where quite distant from the national political arena. Sonia was believed to have supported Rajiv's decision of not following his family's preferred profession and encouraged their private and slightly reclusive family life.

After the death of Rajiv in 1991, Sonia Gandhi remained the only surviving adult of the dominant Nehru-Gandhi family (Sanjay's widow Maneka famously left the household because of differences with the mother-in-law). At the time of the 1991 elections, the Congress, perhaps simply for guidance, turned towards her and encouraged her to enter politics. A firm denial derailed these succession plans, but she was not out of the minds of many Congress politicians. To them, she remained the flag-bearer of India's First Family, one who would not disappoint them and sooner or later, rise up to lead them. They were right.

in the 1991 elections, P.V Narasimha Rao was elected as the Congress President and with his minority government, remarkably lasted in his five year tenure as the nation's Prime Minister. But it was behind the scenes, that the wheels started creaking. The rise of Sonia Gandhi as an extraconstitutional source of power had begun. The last such person to wield such a role while remaining unelected was her late brother-in-law Sanjay, who according to one historian 'would have done to the country what he did to the plane, had he lived. (For those who didnt know the exact circumstances of death, it basically means flying the stunt plane upside down without even being licensed to sit in it')

In 1996, the murmurs rose again. When election time came, cries came for the famous bahu to take her party forward. She didnt do much on the face, but her role within was widening. There was no need of asking her in any case, the Congress lost the elections to the BJP, who in turn couldnt form the government leading to the introduction of disjointed coalition politics in India. 1998 was the moment it was official. She was elected the Congress President of India - the head of Indian Politics' historically most dominant party. The preceding 4 Congress Presidents were Sitaram Kesri, Narasimha Rao, Rajiv Gandhi and Indira Gandhi. Only Kesri did not become PM.

You can go today and ask any layman, who the most powerful person in India is. Chances are, he will tell you with a knowing look that the great economist is just a puppet, and with a sly grin add a caveat that Sonia Gandhi wields the power. And this is something that is today in 2000s taken for granted. But how exactly? How did an Italian-born, naturalized Indian citizen in 1983, with no initial political interest or desire for the public spotlight, reach this stage? Was it a change in mindset for her? Was it a desire to cleanse the system which dirtied the initially squeaky clean Prime Minister, her husband? Was it a desire to mould Rahul and Priyanka into future leaders by walking with them while holding their hands? Or was she a launched product of senior leaders, reminiscent of how 'the Syndicate' introduced Indira Gandhi has their 'goongi gudiya'. As always, we can never see the ingredients, but only the final result.

In 2004, when the UPA clinched a surprise win over the 'India Shining' BJP, the real shock was when she abdicated the Top Job to the noted economist Dr. Manmohan Singh. If making headlines was her intention, she got what she wanted. Various theories followed this decision that left even 'India Scholars' wide-eyed. The Opposition claimed it was a political stunt, and in hindsight, you would have to agree that it was a very smart one too. While cries were there that a person of non-Indian origin could not formally lead the country, there was no problems according to Constitutional Law. The media coverage of the abdication conference is still fresh in minds and it became a topic discussed by everyone: Why did she turn it down? While people disagreed in these reasons, they unanimously agreed that 10 Janpath had much more power than 7 Race Course Road, a daring suggestion, but one that can be made remarkably calmly today.

Even now. she remains the Congress President and the UPA Chairperson. Political Analysts speculate that if the UPA wins 2009, the Prime Ministerial portfolio will be decided as per her wishes - the Doctor, her son, herself or perhaps even another new surprise. The rise of her political significance is meteoric, and apart from a few, no one is aware of the inside story.

Why and how did the nation's bahu go on and take the cognomen of 'Mother India' from the earlier Mrs. Gandhi? We will never know, but can only watch which direction this dynasty takes.

Holy Hindutva

You would be forgiven easily if you claimed that you first heard the term 'Hindutva' in the late 1980s; that is the time that it was popularized and more importantly, politicized. But the concept is hardly new - Vinayak Damodar Savarkar coined the term when he wrote his treatise 'Hindutva: Who is a Hindu?'. Published under the name of 'Mahratta', the work was smuggled out of prison and espoused a never-before-seen promotion of Hindu social and political consciousness. Savarkar defined a 'Hindu' as a patriotic inhabitant of 'Bharatvarsha', venturing beyond simply a religious identity. It was meant to be a cultural and civilizational concept, and its supporters today repeat that fact, and even claim that it is not religious fundamentalism.

One could be forgiven to see the religious fundamentalism in 'Hindutva' today. Its biggest supporters have been the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), who can easily be described as far-right wing Hindu nationalists, who have even suffered the ignominy of actually being banned. The first time was in 1975 by Indira Gandhi, during her Emergency setting spree, but the second was under far graver circumstances - the aftermath of the 1992 Babri Masjid destruction (even though the actual destruction was done by members of an RSS offshoot, Vishva Hindu Parishad).

Hindus have enjoyed a large majority (always greater than 80%) in India and while communal relations can hardly be described as ideal, there are only a few flash points where there were serious internal red alerts. In such instance, the ears of the Hindu nationalists perked up, after hearing about the Shah Bano case.

When the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Shah Bano being granted alimony from her ex-husband, the Muslim community rose up in protest as they felt an encroachment on the Muslim Personal Law, which does not require the alimony payment. The then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, personally picked the case and took it to legislature, where the SC's decision was overturned and a new law was passed allowing Indian Muslims not to have the exact same laws as other Indians, for certain cases. Hindu Nationalists leapt in protest, at what they felt was 'pseudo-secularism' as well as a Congress electoral ploy to get the 'Muslim Vote'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in its fledging state at the time, and took upon getting a 'Uniform Civil Code' for all Indians as part of its mandate.

The BJP has been described by few as the political wing of the RSS, and many fear that it is hardcore Hindu fundamentalist. However, after their stints in power, some of these fears were allayed and most now view it as a Centre-Right party. It derives its ideology from the RSS without a doubt, but also has proved to be extremely progressive (and arguably successful) in matters of the economy and national security.

'Hindutva' is the campaign slogan often used by party leaders - LK Advani, Narendra Modi and Rajnath Singh are key proponents of it. While the BJP quite recently (Feb 2009) made the claim that if it would return to power, it would rebuild the Ram temple at Ayodhya, its leaders were quick to point out that it would not do so if its coalition (NDA) came to power. Re-building the temple is part of its ideology and denying the chance, would alienate some of its hardcore supports. However, the BJP is practical enough to know that the chances of it forming an absolute majority with no coalition support is practically impossible, and leaving the situation at status quo would not alienate a crucial support base - the moderate, educated middle class Hindus. A point to be noted here, is that most of the BJP's support comes from the upper castes. Even though the BJP is trying to promote lower caste politics (a la the BSP), it does not contribute to the present day social democratization of India.

The 'Hindutva' concept is a loosely defined one, with parties alternating their vocal preferences for it. While the RSS is seen as the ideological head, other crucial parties for the 'Sangh Parivar' include the previously mentioned VHP, Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad and Bharatiya Kisan Sangh. There are also other political parties outside the Sangh Parivar, who are associated with Hindutva. They include the Akhil Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the Bharatiya Janshakti party, the Shiv Sena, and even the Sikh religious party of the Shiromani Akali Dal.

As mentioned before, the BJPs committment to Hindutva varies according to timing. It is aware that a far right Hindu nationalist party would have no electoral chance, and hence is actually quite centre-right in its functioning. However, it cannot distance itself from the far-right actions and statements of the RSS and the Shiv Sena, as it tied to them ideology. The difference can even be seen from leader to leader. Vajpayee stood for moderate Hindutva, while LK Advani is quite prominent. Narendra Modi is 'Hindutva's poster boy, yet Arun Jaitley seems hardly connected to it.

Herein lies the quandary of Modern Indian Politics. The BJP cannot strongly associate or dissociate itself from 'Hindutva' because Identity Politics still matter. At the same time, economic performance and governance cannot be ignored, and it makes winning the support of a majority to be a highly complex decision of which factors to concentrate on. Circa 2009, the BJP needs to make its positioning clear. The premier Opposition party needs to re-find its winning formula.

Return of the Brat

Independent India's only significant brush with authoritarianism came during Indira Gandhi's Emergency of 1975-77, largely believed to have been inspired by the ideals of her younger son, Sanjay Gandhi. The race car driving, stunt plane flying and power hungry Sanjay never held an elected post in his life, but that never stopped him from exercising control in any way he saw fit. With no college education and no interest in anything apart from politics (unlike his brother Rajiv who shunned the spotlight initially and was content being an airline pilot), he chose to remain by his mother when she was Prime Minister and was rumored to have an extraordinary influence over her, leading to many undemocratic decisions. The brash Sanjay was accused of forced sterilization (his answer to solve the growing population problem), massive corruption (through the 1971 'People's Car' contract) and generally causing mayhem with his cronies (anecdotes include being caught for stealing a car in London). Indian Politics' Original Brat was seen as many as a future leader, irrespective of peoples wishes. His dictatorial plans were cut shot however, as he plunged to his death from a stunt aircraft (which he was not authorized / licensed to fly) at the age of 34.

He was survived by his 3-month old son, Varun Feroze Gandhi. Varun Gandhi grew up in a less headline-snatching way than his father, and went on to the London School of Economics and the School of Oriental and African studies to complete an impressive education in economics and law.

In 2004, at the age of 24, Varun decided to enter the political arena and shocked everyone by joining the ideological opposites of his family's Congress Party (quite literally his family's party - from his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru to even his father arguably), the Bharatiya Janata Party. At the time his mother Maneka (estranged from her mother-in-law Indira and the rest of the family) was a BJP candidate and this was believed to have influenced Varun's decision.

However, of late, Varun Gandhi does not at all look like a misfit to the BJP. To the extent that he currently resembles an RSS man, a hardcore Hindutva supporter who went as far as to speak inflammatory remarks against Muslims during his electoral speeches in his contested constituency of Pilibhit. On 16 March 2009, several Indian newspapers carried headlines of how Varun Gandhi's shocking speeches have the potential to cause massive communal clashes. There were articles about many BJP leaders distancing themselves from Varun as well as such hardcore views. Opposition political parties clamored to the Election Commission for a ban, and at the time of writing, the Pilibhit Police have even registered an official case against him for allegedly 'making inflammatory speeches with an intention to create enmity among people on the basis of religion'.

And it is only today that you will realize that Varun Feroze Gandhi truly is the son of Sanjay Gandhi. The action is typically Sanjay-esque. Brash, polarizing and perhaps most importantly, headline-snatching. A cynical opinion might also be to indicate that the BJP is in on this, the media is carrying publicity of this everywhere. TV Debates, online discussions the most favored print articles, are simply talking about the BJP Young Leader's gall to make such remarks. Varun may simply even be playing an electoral game here. With an 81% Hindu population, he can afford to alienate sections of Hindus, and still be able to make the arithmetic work in his favor.

The current discussion is definitely a hot one. While these speeches can cause far reaching damaging consequences to India's internal communal harmony (or lack of), the decision reeks of Sanjay Jr, a ploy to seize attention and ultimately, power.

The Top Job

CNN-IBN's article on the race for India's Prime Ministerial post (http://ibnlive.in.com/news/advani-manmohan-lead-race-for-indias-pm/87709-37.html) is an interesting one, and makes for an interesting debate.

The Big Two are the ones who dominate the front page headlines even now, the current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh along with the current Leader of the Opposition, L.K. Advani. The incumbent is a politician better known for his time as the Finance Minister during P.V Narsimaha Rao's tenure, where his package of liberalization, privatization and globalization greatly rescued the ailing Indian economy (circa 1991) and laid the foundations for its current achievements. Yet his nomination as the Prime Minister in 2004 by Sonia Gandhi was largely met with skepticism regarding his political ambitions, many believed it was a ploy by Sonia Gandhi to win the peoples hearts, whereas still maintaining power via this 'puppet'. Dr. Singh, to his credit, has proved tougher that many initially thought; the victory in the No-Confidence Motion following the withdrawal of the Left as well some harsh personal remarks have deterred the 'puppet' image to some extent. Yet many critics remain unconvinced about his power within the Congress, leave alone the UPA, and feel that nothing will ever be done against the will of Rajiv Gandhi's widow. Of course, doubts remain about his health whether he will be fit to carry on for another term, but more important public support for him as the Prime Minister is a doubt. While universally respected, many feel he is the ideal choice for being the Finance Minister. The fact remains that Manmohan Singh as never won a Lok Sabha seat in his entire life, and continues to look like an economist in a politicians seat.

Advani on the other hand, does not face these problems, but instead counters other issues. Historically, the BJPs No. 2 man, after Vajpayee, Advani has also struggled to assert his dominance over the party. His Hindutva hardliner status alienates him from some portion of the party's support and age is an even bigger factor for him. But the most significant point is that the BJP under Advani is less likely to attract lies, than when it was under Vajpayee. Historical supporters like Jayalalithaa, Omar Abdullah and Ram Vilas Paswan have left the BJP in the Advani-years and hence, his capability as a statesman can be doubted.

Apart from these two contenders, name that seem to sprout up include Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, and Pranab Mukherjee. Sonia Gandhi would hardly be considered the post, as it clearly seems as she does not want it. Of course if the UPA does win the elections, there would be no stopping her if she decided to change her mind.

Mayawati, is a far more interesting case. Her rise to power has been dramatic, with her party (Bahujan Samaj Party) being able to capture India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh. The BSP has gone from being a small, no hope party to one of the the newest and most dynamic ones. Unfortunately for many educated Indians, the party represents a lot that is wrong about India, particularly the caste based politics. Mayawati takes identity politics to a whole other level, campaigning as a 'daughter of a Dalit'. The Dalits, formerly untouchables, have hardly enjoyed equal rights in the nation even after independence. Political inequality has often simply been a 'pipe dream' for them, and Mayawati has exploited this fact to mobilize the masses. While traditionally low in in power, this pool has strong numbers, which makes for good electoral arithmetic. Many of the educated English speaking middle class are quite against Mayawati, and cite her numerous allegations of corruption as reasons why a politician like her should not be trusted. But in a parliamentary democracy, the will of the people is what works. And even if she alienates the English speaking class, her vote bank might just have enough to take her past the finish line. Rumours also persist that she would be the face of a non-Congress and non-BJP government, i.e. the Third Front. On a personal note, someone of high repute in this field staked his reputation on the fact that by 2015, Mayawati will be India's Prime Minister. I would put my money on him.

Mayawati, unlike many of her contemporaries, has time on her side and is part of a party that is growing annually, and not shrinking from past glories. Year by year, she has steadily been growing in political importance. The BSP's electoral symbol of an elephant might just prove to be representative of its weight in the political arena. GE 2009, isnt a do-or-die for Mayawati. She can play her cards right, and set up alliances in such a way, that at the time of GE 2014, she has much better odds. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

The list of other candidates can be studied now, by first looking at Sharad Pawar. The leader of the NCP has acquired a reputation of being a political heavyweight, one who many coalitions look towards getting support from. Rumours also persist that he is adamant on getting the PM seat, and he would mostly likely pursue this ambition in a Deve Gowda-esque way, where he would try his luck even with his party securing a few seats in the Lok Sabha. (Deve Gowda barely got a dozen seats with his Janata Dal, but was able to become leader of the United Front) Pawar plays his Maharashtrian Identity card perhaps a bit too strongly; as the Director of the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Research Foundation Tarun Vijay states 'We need an Indian Prime Minister, not a Maharashtrian one'.

Rahul Gandhi's mention as a candidate is more often made by political novices, who assume that his surname automatically qualifies him to be the country's leader. While it is hard to completely dismiss that logic, India definitely has moved ahead of the times where it would simply bow down to a dynastic pattern. The fact of the matter is that Rahul Gandhi himself is a political novice, who was not proved himself, as being able to take his own party by the helm, leave alone the country. Rajiv Gandhi's son is greatly influenced by his mother, and even though she may have Prime Ministerial ambitions for him, it is unlikely she will want them to be completed in 2009.

Narendra Modi's handling of Gujarat, has lead to many voicing their desire for him to be promoted from state level to the national level. His hardline attitude towards Muslims, wins him some support from some Hindus, but real merit points include his administration's excellent track record of economic growth, quick reaction to the earthquake and strong anti-terrorist measures. Modi, however, remains a very controversial figure and it would be highly unlikely whether the BJP would turn towards him at this point.

Lastly, the growing stature of the Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee has led many to earmark him as the Dark Horse. He is one of the few Cabinet Ministers whose stock has actually risen during the UPA's term. The Editor-in-Chief of Outlook, Vinod Mehta, offers an interesting opinion: 'He (Mukherjee) is the diwan to the king, but the diwan can never be made the king'.

But the beauty of Indian Politics (Representative Parliamentary Democracy) allows almost anyone to become the Prime Minister, the only criteria to be satisfied being that the party / coalition in power must anoint him / her as their leader. This is what leaves the door open to all possibilities. Who knows? We might be in for a real shocker.

A Good Link

For a nice summary of how the Indian political game works, have a look at -

http://indiauncut.com/iublog/article/the-hypocrisy-of-indian-politics/

Well written and concise, this piece clearly explains the importance of Identity in Indian Politics.

The Third Front - Coming of Age Finally?

Was it inevitable? Were the Congress and BJP too complacent in thinking that the Indian elections was going to a battle of the heavyweights between them, with other parties simply providing bulk to the 2 behemoths? Was there no other competition on the horizon?

You probably wouldnt fault them for thinking so: the 2004 elections saw the Congress and BJP winning 26.7% and 25.4% of the seats in the Lok Sabha respectively. The contest was mostly about adding more parties to the UPA and the NDA, and when the UPA captured the support of the Left, Sonia Gandhi was invited to take power as Leader of the Government.

The Congress has however, failed to really capitalize on its position of power. India's anti-incumbency trend seems quite sure to hit them, where the electorate simply removes the party in power for failure to fulfill their initial promises. While the UPA managed to withstand the withdrawal of the the Left (over the Indian-US Nuclear Agreement) by winning the No-Confidence motion, 26/11 and the poor following response might just be the death knell. The victors of the 1999 elections, the BJP (through the NDA) have themselves experienced India's penchant for anti-incumbency, when their 'India Shining' campaign spectacularly backfired and had them sitting in the Opposition. Ordinarily, the BJP would be expected by most pundits to take this election. Preference for a more liberalized and capitalistic economy coupled with a hardliner stance towards terrorism should have put them in pole position. However, the BJP suffers from a lack of leadership, with LK Advani remaining the sole Prime Ministerial Candidate. Due to old age and poor health, the popular AB Vajpayee will hardly be able to lead for another term, whereas the demise of the General Secretary Pramod Mahajan, the leader of the Young BJP, ensures that the BJP is not as strong as before.

And within all this, the Third Front has risen. The idea of a Non-Congress and Non-BJP government seems less than absurd now; many view it as plausible and a few even see it as desirable. So who exactly are joining hands to make GE 2009 a tripartite contest? Well, as per the announcement on 12th March at Tumkur, Karnataka, the following parties will be part of the Third Front:
Janata Dal (Secular), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, Revolutionary Socialist Party, Forward Bloc, Telugu Desam Party, AIADMK, Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the Bahjuan Samaj Party

To put them into a more familiar context, some of the party leaders include:
HD Deve Gowda, Prakash Karat, AB Bardhan, K Chandrashekhar, Jayalalitha and last, but perhaps the most important, Mayawati.

Not a bad list, is it? A former Prime Minister, the General Secretary of India's premier communist party and Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu as well as the Nation's most important political state Uttar Pradesh. Definitely not one to be dismissed easily.

The biggest dilemma the Third Front would face would be regarding the Prime Ministerial Candidate. A clash of egos for the top job, would destroy the bloc's chances, and the sooner consensus can be reached for a candidate, the stronger the Third Front's chances. Mayawati has been touted by many as a possible candidate, but other leaders will not give in so easily.

Will such a party be good for India? Will it break the hegemony of the Congress and the BJP and give Indians the government they have always been yearning for? Or will it be one huge mess dominated by increasing caste politics and taking the economy towards its socialist (less free) roots again?

The answer as always can only be determined in the last year of a Lok Sabha's tenure; whether it has done enough to win successive elections? The BJP thought they had done impressively; the voters thought otherwise. Will the Congress face the same fate?

The case for a Third Front has never been stronger. And the parties themselves, have never been in a better place individually. I tip them to win. Will they do well? Honestly, go toss a coin.

Random Musings - III

Random Musings - II

GE 2009 - Poll Dates!

Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh will have polls on all five dates.

Bihar: April 16, 23, 30 and May 7.

Maharashtra: April 16, 23, and 30.

West Bengal: April 30, May 7 and 13.

Andhra Pradesh: April 16 and 23.

Assam: April 16 and 23.

Karnataka: April 23 and 30.

Madhya Pradesh: April 23 and 30.

Manipur: April 16 and 23.

Orissa: April 16 and 23.

Punjab: May 7 and 13.

Jharkhand: April 16 and 23.

Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Chhattisgarh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep will have a single-phase poll on April 16.

Goa and Tripura will have one-day poll on April 23.

Gujarat, Sikkim, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu will have one-day poll on April 30.

Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan will have a one-day poll on May 7.

Himachal Pradesh , Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand , Chandigarh and Puducherry will have polling on May 13.