Tuesday, June 30, 2009

The Idea of India: The Idea of Chandigarh



'The Idea of India' is perhaps one of the best written books regarding modern India's political history. Sunil Khilnani explores democracy, institution, cities and personalities in this much recommended book.

In his third chapter, titled 'Cities', Khilnani explores different Indian cities and their distinctive personalities. His explanation of Chandigarh is worth reading -

'Partition was the immediate background to the building of Chandigarh. The need for a new capital for the province of Punjab (the old capital, Lahore, had been awarded to Pakistan) presented an opportunity that matched Nehru's intention to have India break away from the existing cities - stamped by colonialism, soiled by Partition, and in the grip of often corrupt municipalities. Nehru was in search of a way to renew the city, to use it to display an Indian modernity distinct from and free of the colonial version. Like his British predecessors, he was attracted by the possibility of starting again, of constructing on an empty field a generous architectural proposition of the new India. The result was a monumental city, condemned to revolve in an external orbit around the life of its people in Punjab: a glorious stage set where tableaux of state might be enacted but lacking everyday politics.

Chandigarh was a city of politicians, bureaucrats and politics. Built after waves of post-Partition migration, it was spared inundation by the poorest and most abject. It became a terminus for the more prosperous: retired civil servants and servicemen, professionals, and a large class of their servitors. But Chandigarh lacked any of the productive capacities of modernity. Le Corbusier, its architect, was insistent that it must be solely a seat of government, not of industry and manufacture: 'one must not mix the two' he stipulated in his eccentric and imperious manual,' For the Establishment of an Immediate Statute of the Land'.'

'Although a provincial capital, Chandigarh from its inception had the status of a national project - Nehru took a personal interest in it, and it was generously funded by the national government. The site was desolate but spectacular: 400 kilometers north of New Delhi, on a plain that sloped slowly, beneath wide blue skies, towards the Himalayan foothills. 'The site chosen,' Nehru explained,' is free from existing encumberances of new towns', which would make the new city 'symbolic of the freedom of India, unfettered by traditions of the past.... an expression of the nation's faith in the future'. But Chandigarh was also, and ultimately most decisively, the fantasy of its architect.'

'The design of Chandigarh expressed one aspect of Nehru's idea of a modern India: the sense that India must free itself of both the contradictory modernity of the Raj and nostalgia for its indigenous past. It had to move forward by one decisive act that broke both with its ancient and its more recent history. The rationalist, modernist strain in Nehru's thinking obliterated the attachment to the heritage of an Indianness rooted in the past. Chandigarh boldly divested itself of history, rejecting both colonial imagery and national sentimentalism of ornament. The literal, utilitarian names of its axial avenues (Madhya Marg, Uttar Marg - Central Avenue, North Avenue) recount no nationalist history (no ubiquitous MG Road here). It has no nationalist monuments, because Le Corbusier specificially banned them.... Just as the English language placed all Indians, at least in principle, at a disadvantage of equal unfamiliarity, so, too Chandigarh could not be seized and possessed by any one group. Even those familiar with colonial architectural idioms, the bungalow and compound, could not immediately usurp this brave new reinforced concrete world.'

'The residential area was divided into thirty neighborhood blocks, or 'sectors', all organized in a repeating pattern. But the egalitarian air was illusory, since the sectors were graded by the strict ranks of administrative hierarchy. The exclusive low-numbered northern sectors, inhabited by bureaucrats and politicians, ranked above the middle class southern sectors; the high-numbered sectors housed the lowest in the hierarchy. Each sector was internally differentiated: houses were identified by plot number, and the lower the number, the larger the plot; those in the thousands were the smallest. Every Chandigarh address thus encoded fairly precise information about its owner's standing in the bureaucratic and economic hierarchy.'

'Chandigarh never achieved the cosmopolitanism it craved. Instead of ruling, enlightening and modernizing its society. this city of the the future became a museum piece in need of protection from its own violently quarreling citizens and the ravages of climate. Its vacant, eerily ordered centre was ignored by the teeming and disorganized expansion of the industrial townships of Panchkula and S.A.S Nagar, whose economic dynamism helped to make it one of India's fastest growing urban regions during the 1960s and 1970s. In that sense, it could claim a certain success. But Chandigarh failed to produce a society of secular individuals or a modernist politics: drawn into the vortex of Punjab's politics, it was turned into a cipher in a battle of communal identities.

'Chandigarh spawned further provincial 'concept' capitals: Otto Koenigsberger's Bhubhaneshwar, Bhopal and Gandhinagar - the one that most aspired to Chandigarh's image, a cruel concrete homage to Gandhi, which displaced Ahmedabad as the new capital of Gujarat.'



In these selected lines (above), Khilnani has succinctly summarized the need for Chandigarh; what the idea behind it was, and he gave his own opinion of what he felt it become. It is true that it failed to inspire similar cities across the country, but it battled the 1980 communal tensions of the Hindus and Sikhs to return to be a secular city, albeit because of a truce between the two religions. A short background of Chandigarh (circa 2009) might be useful at this point -

The first planned city of India, Chandigarh, is spread across 114 square kilometers and holds the distinction of being the city with the highest average per-capita income in the country. It is home to 3 governments, a claim no other Indian city has, with the Chandigarh UT Government being here along with the Punjab and Haryana Governments. According to a 1985 agreement by Rajiv Gandhi with the Akali Dal, Chandigarh was meant to go entirely to Punjab, but after 24 years of the agreement, it does not seem to be coming into effect anytime soon.

In Infrastructure terms on a whole, the city appears to be peerless. A 2007 study by the Asian Development Bank showed that Chandigarh had the best water supply in India, supplying water 12 hours a day compared to the 4.3 hour average of the other 20 studied cities. Also, it has the largest number of vehicles per capita in the nation. A reason cited for this are the wide and well maintained roads, often viewed as an anomaly in India.

Yet the city is trapped in a conflict. Past and the future. A visit to the city will explain it. You'll know it when you see it.

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The map of Chandigarh. As Khilnani, put it, the lower the sector number, the more prestigious it is. A few points to note: Sector 13 doesnt exist, Le Corbusier was apparently superstitious. Sector 17 is exclusively the commercial centre, with no residences.



A typical roundabout which is found between the sectors. The traffic is higher than what you will typically see though.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Welcome technocrats!



In a refreshing move, the UPA Government has planned to go full steam ahead with the Unique Identity Authority of India, and they have picked a political novice (although an industry captain), Nandan Nilekani to head the Rs. 1,990 crore project, which is expected to be completed by 2011, in time for the Census.

The project aims to give every Indian citizen a unique identification number, which can do away with documents like ration cards and voter identification cards. It will be a huge boost to national security, a much needed step after the infamous 26/11 attacks. The number system will also overhaul and direct the delivery mechanism for public goods and services to intended beneficiaries. An initial Rs. 100 crore have been allocated as of now.

Nilekani had previously been the Co-Chairman of Infosys Technologies, but had always campaigned for this idea of a unique ID. In his book, he claimed that a national ID will be 'nothing less than revolutionary', and the government felt fitting to hand over this project to a technocrat, whose past experience make him an excellent candidate for the job. He had to resign from his Chairman-ship at Infosys, in order to avoid any conflict of interest, which will be effective from July 9.

This act by the UPA government, has earned itself plaudits, and it will be a major achievement if it can be completed in time. The NDA government had launched an experimental version (the Multi Purpose National Identity Card) in 2003, but had not been carried forward by the UPA in its first term. Nilekani's appointment is the second major technocrat appointment; the first being Montek Singh Ahluwalia, one of the best known Indian economists who was appointed as the Head of the Planning Commission. MIP is quite in favour of such an ambitious project, it is time to modernize our government!

Monday, May 18, 2009

Why. You. Just. Can NOT. Predict. Indian. Election. Results!



The votes are in! While many expected the Doctor to be raising his hand for the trademark (if not cliched) victory sign, few would have anticipated it barely a few hours after election results were released.

Even the most optimistic UPA figures (including those thought by themselves) did not exceed the 240 mark. Regional Heavyweights like Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the RJD and Jayalalitha of the AIADMK were being courted as allies in either an internal or external support structure to help the coalition cross the magic 272 figure mark. Of course, the results of May 16, stripped the 'kingmakers' of their regal rewards.

To recap the results,
UPA - 262 seats (+43 since GE 2004)
NDA - 157 seats (-23)
Third Front - 57 seats (-22)
BSP - 21 seats (+2)
Others - 17 seats


To compare the results with MIP Predictions,
UPA outperformed by 67 seats
NDA underperformed by 32 seats
Third Front underperformed by 43 seats
BSP underperfomed by 11 seats
Others outperformed by 7 seats

To explore where the actual results deviated from the expected, it is quite clear that the UPA's increase of seats was a direct steal from the share of its competitors, the need-for-rejuvenation NDA and the need-for-any-kind-of-stability Third Front. The Congress Party in itself, had a fantastic performance taking a total of 206 seats across the nation. The last time the Congress had such a result, the dynamic Rajiv Gandhi was at the helm. Credit is definitely due to the Congress for beating the BJP, party-for-party, by a margin of 90 seats, which can only be a termed as an absolute drumming.

Lets dive in further to analyze the UPA results.

1. The Trinamool Congress chipped in as the most valuable ally with 19 seats. The alliance with the Congress, helped it take over West Bengal, long regarded as a Left Stronghold (through the CPM).

2. The DMK came a close second with 18 seats in Tamil Nadu, exactly double of Amma's return with the AIADMK.

3. Very strong performance by the UPA (>80% of seats) in the states of:
Andhra Pradesh (95%)
Haryana (90%)
Rajasthan (80%)
Jammu & Kashmir (83%)
Kerala (80%)
Delhi (100%)
Uttrakhand (100%)

4. Strong performance by the UPA (>60% of seats) in the states of:
Punjab (62%)
West Bengal (62%)
Tamil Nadu (69%)

5. Moderate performance by the UPA (>30% of seats) in the states of:
Gujuart (42%)
Maharashtra (52%)
Madhya Pradesh (41%)
Orissa (29%)

6. Weak performance by the UPA (<30% of seats) in the states of:
Uttar Pradesh (26%)
Jharkand (21%)
Karnataka (21%)
Himachal Pradesh (25%)

Do note that this weak performance only represents arithmetic numbers. In reality, the UPA has perfomed exceptionally well to even get this 20-30% share in some states like UP or Karnataka. The dominance of regional heavyweights are often the cause of a poor show by national parties.

The UPA had very few Zeros - Small North-Eastern States like Sikkim and Nagaland and Union Territories like Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Daman & Diu.

The Final scorecard of the UPA reads as: 7-3-4-4 (only taking major states into account).

Comparing the results to GE 2004, the main increases of the UPA were:
Uttar Pradesh (200% increase)
Punjab (300% increase)
Rajasthan (400% increase)
Jammu & Kashmir (150% increase)
Kerala (a phenomenal 1500% increase, the tally of only 1 seat in 2004 rising to 16 in 2009)
West Bengal (333% increase)
Madhya Pradesh (200% increase)
Orissa (100% increase)

The main declines were seen in:
Bihar (93% decrease)
Jharkand (75% decrease)
Tamil Nadu (25% decrease)
Himachal Pradesh (67% decrease)

While the UPA camp is a happy one, the NDA is hardly 'Shining'. The BJP itself fell from its 2004 position of 138 seats to 116 seats. Some reasons for the dismal performance of the NDA:

1. The departure of Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) from the NDA weakened the chances of getting seats in Orissa. The BJD ultimately got 14 out of the 21 seats in Orissa, with the NDA failing to capture even 1.

2. Poor performance of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab. While in power via the Badals in the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP-SAD combo failed to take over Punjab. The alliance only gave 5 out of the 13 seats, with the UPA securing the remaining 8.

3. Failure to do well in South India. While the Congress enjoys a pan-India reputation, the BJP is largely a North India party catering to the Hindi heartland. In South India (barring Karnataka), the NDA took a real whacking. 2 seats of 42 in Andhra Pradesh, none in Kerala or Tamil Nadu have practically cost it the election. In the same 3 states, the UPA took a mammoth 83 out of the 101 seats.


A more detailed state-wise analysis of the NDA:

1. Very strong performance by the NDA (>80% of seats) in the states of:
Bihar (80%)
Chhatisgarh (91%)

2. Strong performance by the NDA (>60% of the seats) in the states of:
Karnataka (68%)
Himachal Pradesh (75%)

3. Moderate performance by the NDA (>30% of the seats) in the states of:
Gujuarat (58%)
Jharkand (57%)
Punjab (38%)
Maharashtra (42%)
Madhya Pradesh (55%)
Assam (36%)

4. Weak perfomance by the NDA (<30% of the seats) in the states of:
Uttar Pradesh (19%)
Andhra Pradesh (5%)
Rajasthan (16%)
West Bengal (2%)

The NDA had much more 0s than the UPA. In Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Kerala, Orissa and several North-Eastern states, the NDA failed to register a single seat. With a scorecard of 2-2-6-4 can hardly compete with the 7-3-4-4 of the UPA.

But the NDA arent the biggest losers of this campaign. Not by a long shot. See the results of the Left and try and not think about the words 'crushing defeat'. Quite tough.

The CPI and the CPM in total polled 24 seats, a 29 seat decline from the 53 seats captured in 2004. The Communist bastions of Kerala and West Bengal are now UPA strongholds. In Kerala, the Left only took 20% of the seats, while in West Bengal, its 35% capture was insufficient to block the advances of the UPA. It was quite amazing to see Prakash Karat pull off a faint smile, while reporters all over for screeching questions about the reasons for this defeat.

Now that we are on the Losers column, let us also talk about the heartland trio - Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Jan Shakti Party.

The SP saw a fall of 13 seats to end with 23 seats. Perhaps Mulayam Singh Yadav's idea of removing computers and teaching of English was not as visionary as he thought.

Lalu's RJD was embarassed with a 20 seat loss, ending with simply 4 seats. The ex-Railways Minister will find no place for himself in the Cabinet this time around.

If the RJD was embarassed, the LJP was humiliated. Ram Vilas Paswan's party lost his 4 seats and has failed to find representation in the Lok Sabha.

Sharad Pawar of the NCP has been remarkably quiet about his chances for the Top Job. He probably realized that his party's return of 9 seats was not impressive in an alliance of 262 seats.

The most quiet person of this elections has probably been Mayawati. While the Bahujan Samaj Party got a decent return of 21 seats, there is no reason for the UPA to invite her to join the alliance. External support may be considered for the UPA to cross the 272 mark, but she is not going to have as imporant a role in the national polity as she would have hoped for. The BSP is also quite weak outside of the UP, its only other seat coming in Madhya Pradesh.

Special mention to Nitish Kumar, whose JD(U) in Bihar won 20 out of the 40 seats. The Lalu era is practically over, and Nitish's popularity continues to rise.

Rahul Gandhi's work in UP seems to have paid off well. He seems at ease in the Engine of the Congress, and seems to getting the right seasoning. Lets hope Rajiv's son has inherited many of his father's qualities.

The 'Brat' (Varun Gandhi) won the Pilihibit Constituency by receiving 49.79% of the total votes casted (over 4.19 lakh votes). MIP's Idol-in-Chief Shashi Tharoor is also an MP now, winning the Trivandrum constituency in Kerala. Tharoor beat his nearest rival by over 1 lakh votes. Meera Sanyal, however, did not enjoy success. She barely polled over 5000 votes, and quite easily beaten by the incumbent Milind Deora.

To end this mammoth article, MIP would like to congratulate the UPA and the Congress, for their excellent results. While personal opinion supports the NDA and the BJP, MIP realizes the need for stability and continuity and prefers a government that will not have to face no-confidence motions any time its allies feel like making a U-turn. Well done. Heres hoping to 5 more years of India Shining! :P

Before I forget, isnt this picture really, really funny?

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Know your MP!



Do you know your MP?

Well I do know the name of my constituency's (Chandigarh) representative - Pawan Kumar Bansal. And I do know that he's part of the Indian National Congress. Apart from that, I confess I don't really know anything.

But perhaps maybe we should care a bit more. We do tend to spend too much time looking at affairs at the Centre level; will the Left rejoin the UPA this time around? Fascinating political stuff no doubt, but not one to directly impact our everyday lives. Our own local MP - slightly more relevant!

Every election has its fair share of independent candidates, more than what you think. They usually have low profiles, low finances, hardly a clear political mandate, and ultimately tend to fail miserably at the ballot box. But a few times, some committed independents do stand a chance - when the electorate is fed up of the existing options and the new option resembles a breath of fresh air.

Take the case of Meera Sanyal, whose enjoyed a lot of publicity recently. The current Chief Executive of ABN Amro in India, Sanyal has taken a sabbatical from work and has announced her candidature in the upcoming General Elections of 2009 from the South Mumbai constituency. Inspired by the outburst of the general public in the aftermath of the 26/11 terrorist attacks, Sanyal's campaign slogan is 'lets get Mumbai back on track'. She proclaims her 'Punch-a-mantra' as -

1. More Investment for Infrastructure in Mumbai
2. A Radically Improved Public Transport System
3. Stronger Security
4. Systemic Reforms through the Nagara Raj Bill
5. Directly Elected and Empowered Mayor

See something different? Any mention of reservations in educational institutions for any particular caste? What about points for or against the Indo-US Nuclear Deal? What about 'realistic claims' like fixing the price of rice of Rs. 2 per kg?

In fact, there are no national issues at stake here. All 5 points concern MUMBAI, which happens to be the very location of the seat being contested. Before deriding the sarcasm, do think how many other candidates talk seriously about local issues. And when do you ever listen to them? I'm pretty sure if youre a BJP / Congress supporter, you'll vote for pretty much anyone who your preferred party will put up to contest the elections. Kumar this time, Raj the next, who cares about the guy? After all, isnt it more important to make sure the right party comes to power at the Centre?

Not quite. Let me refresh what I wrote in an earlier article (System Overhaul?)-

'The point of parliamentary democracy is to choose your own area's representatives. These representatives, based on ideologies are members of political parties. And the party with the most number of seats in the national assembly chooses a representative to lead the government, and effectively, the country.'

It makes more sense to vote for who the right MP is. And if you agree so much with your preferred party, you really should agree with their candidate, right?

Sanyal's announcement has gained national publicity. Her idea is good, tackling real issues is what politics is intended to be. But dont fool yourself into thinking that she is a front runner. The odds are still stacked against her. She might have the support of the English-speaking, but in a representative democracy, the masses are what win you the seat. And wherever the masses are involved, a huge amount of unpredictability follows. MIP does wish Sanyal luck, if she is true to her word, Mumbai will stand to benefit greatly.

But what about all you other readers residing in different parts of the country? Do you know your MP? Well very simply, just long on to - http://www.hindustantimes.com/Loksabha2009/

Type in your location to personalize your election page. A resident of Kolkata, after simply trying 'Kolkata' will get access to all 42 MP's from West Bengal. If you live in the 'Calcutta North East' constituency, simply click on the name of the constituency and you will see that your MP is Mohammed Salim, a 46 year old representative of the CPI(M), attended 87% of Parliamentary meetings, and participated in 59 Parliamentary debates.

Similarly, you can see 'Development Data' as of 2008, compared with that of 2004, to see the progress made under the incumbent MP. Lastly, Hindustan Times provided location-customized election news. So now you can keep track of the politics concerning the area where you reside!

Go ahead, have a look. Know more about your MP. Judge for yourself from the development data whether he's done a good job. The General Elections are for determining the next National Government, but are also for determining the fates of 552 constituencies all around the country.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Calling for Guest Articles!



Do excuse the the inappropriateness of using a US Military Voluntary Draft poster for recruiting Indian Political Commentators, but the phrase 'We Want You' is rarely put across in a better way. :)

Modern Indian Politics invites guest articles, opinions and even rants about information relating to Modern + Indian + Politics. While pieces relating to current affairs are the most preferred, please feel free to bring back historical issues, as well as predictions on how you expect things to become. With the delicate relationship of Politics with the Economy, articles about the Indian economy might also be a good idea.

Please email articles to modernindianpolitics@gmail.com in the next few weeks. Brevity and conciseness always make for good articles, but if you enjoy a healthy one-sided rant, do send that too. Selected articles will be published with full details of the Guest Author.

Let the writing commence!

Thursday, April 16, 2009

GE 2009: The Politikal Prediction



Its that time of the decade again. The General Elections are here, with the first phase of voting having taken place yesterday (May 16). The nation waits with baited breath for its next Government, for a new set of policies impacting the economy, every state and every citizen in some way or the other.

After studying each state, and looking back at GE 2004's results, these are my predictions for the 2009 Indian General Elections:

UPA - 221 seats
NDA - 188 seats
Third Front - 91 seats
BSP - 32 seats
Others - 10 seats
Total - 542 seats


Mayawati is going to play the role of 'kingmaker' this time. While she will not become the Prime Minister this time (Third Front + BSP = 133 seats), both the UPA and the NDA will be courting her for the stronghold she'll have over Uttar Pradesh.

The most likely scenario seems for the UPA to invite the BSP to join. However, such a combination will only produce 221 + 32 = 253, still under the magic figure of 272. The remaining 20-odd seats will be extremely difficult to get, with almost no option of the Left backing the UPA this time. Do note, I have included Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Laloo Prasad Yadav's RJD as partners of the Congress in the UPA. In case they do not join, expect the UPA to have a 180-odd seats, with almost no hope of forming government.

While I expect the BJP to do quite well, the NDA overall wont be much of a threat because of lost coalition partners. The split with Navin Patnaik's BJD in Orissa and Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in Andhra Pradesh will cost it about 25-odd votes.

The Left's stronghold over Kerala and West Bengal for a major chunk of the Third Front's 91 expected seats. Other useful contributors will be the PMK in Tamil Nadu, BJD in Orissa, the JD(S) in Karnataka. High chances are that the UPA and NDA will both try and obliterate this loose alliance, and try and get as many coalition partners as possible. But it is going to take a lot of convincing to get the 50-odd seats of the Left to join either coalition.

I predict drama. Crazy coalitions. Newspapers and media channels dedicating more time to it than even the 'Abhi-Ash' wedding. The UPA has an edge over the NDA, but simply because of number of coalition partners. The BJP will beat the Congress party-for-party, but will have to try hard to get allies. The BSP is unpredictable; expect it's alliance to be revealed right at the end and to also be the most decisive one.

Logic suggests no government to be formed. 272 is hard to get in a three-way split Parliament. Then again, logic and Indian elections never go together.

Jai Hind.

Monday, April 6, 2009

System Overhaul?



When I was re-reading one of Shashi Tharoor's finest works(India: From Midnight to the Millennium and Beyond), one paragraph within the final chapter caught my fancy. While Tharoor was wrapping up his insightful account of India's political journey from the late 1940s to the early 2000s in a chapter titled 'A Future Without Shock', he quite strongly advocates his preference for a Presidential system of government, over our current Westminster Abbey styled Parliamentary regime. He laments the stability that a Presidential Chief Executive enjoys over a representative democracy Prime Minister, and how he/she can behave more like a member of the Executive than the Legislature. He believes that a country like India, with its monumental economic and social challenges, requires leaders who can focus on governance rather than on staying in power. To borrow a quote from him, 'Indian politicians are more skilled in politics than policymaking'.

Quite so. And Tharoor backs his brave stance with a number of good points. He starts off by laying down the facts that India, quite frankly, does not possess all the criterion required for a parliamentary system to successfully function. "It(The Parliamentary System) requires the existence of clearly-defined political parties, each with a coherent set of policies and preferences that distinguish it from the next, whereas in India a party is merely a label of convenience which a politician adopts and discards as frequently as a Bollywood film star changes costume.

Indian political parties have a reputation for being flippant in terms of ideology. Coalition partners swap places on a fairly whimsical basis, going to whichever major party gives them more benefits. For the General Elections of 2009, both the UPA and the NDA, have seen major allies leave (BSP and BJP respectively), either to switch sides or to go solo. Of course, the biggest evidence of a 'Crazy Coalition' is the newly formed Third Front that represents the Communists in Kerala, the Dalits in Uttar Pradesh, the Social Democrats in Karnataka and the Populists in Tamil Nadu. Hardly a Band of Brothers.

To put the argument on ground level, Tharoor argues that if a person wants LK Advani or Dr. Manmohan Singh to be the national leader, they must vote for someone else in order to indirectly accomplish that result. Hardly a McCain vs Obama duel, which is the political version of Muhammad Ali taking on Joe Frazier. The American political system is quite different from the Indian one. 2 parties. Red versus Blue. The Elephant versus the Donkey. Republicans versus Democrats. Tharoor uses the US example as one which would be greatly beneficial if applied in India. Rather than voting for your local MP, who you have probably never even heard of, vote for the man/woman you want who should lead the nation. The elected PM can choose his cabinet, and Tharoor predicts that experts in each field will be appointed to head Ministries. More effective, probably; more efficient, certainly.

Tharoor claims that suggesting this is political sacrilege. But he finds support with the 13th and 16th Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, who espouses the idea of a revolutionary change of government to a Presidential Regime. Understanding the practical challenges facing such a monumental shift, Vajpayee argues that "even in the mightiest fort one has to repair the parapet from time to time, one has to clean the moat and check the banisters. The same is true about our Constitution."

Proponents of the change argue that the current mess is caused by parliamentary system and not vice versa. Tharoor ends his slightly rant-like opinion by stating that the disrepute into which the political process has fallen in India can be directly traced to the workings of the parliamentary system and argues for change.

I disagree. Call me an romantic old-school Nehruvian, but I cant bear to think of power shifting away from the Sansad Bhavan to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. We got our freedom after a long struggle against foreign autocratic rule, and our nation's guardians in the Constituent Assembly have tried their best to prevent domestic autocratic rule. The point of parliamentary democracy is to choose your own areas representatives. These representatives, based on ideologies are members of political parties. And the party with the most number of seats in the national assembly chooses a representative to lead the government, and effectively, the country. The layers of choosing by the people is what keeps authoritarianism at bay. One my favorite anecdotes of Nehru was in the 1930s, during his ascent, he anonymously penned an article in the Modern Review warning Indians that 'he must be checked' as 'we want no Caesars'.

Nehru was a convinced democrat. And his 17 years at the helm steered India towards political stability. The towering figure protected the Free Indian Union at its toughest time, its infancy. And for that reason, I for one, am glad that the Mahatma pressed for him to lead, and not Vallabhai Patel, who should have been made PM by right. If India sacrificed economic growth at the time, it was at the expense of building a nation, constructing an Indian Identity. The Jan Gan Man would hardly be called as a song sung from all corners of the nation with heartfelt loyalty. Cricket and films were yet to unite us. And there was no Mahatama.

It is such times, that make a dictator. A non-existant opposition and support reeking of sycophancy, usually feeds an ego, into making one man think he can rule the country with no restrictions, and it will be in the benefit of everyone. Yet, Nehru respected the power of the people. He always maintained he was an elected representative of the people and he had no moral right to the throne (Ironically his daughter was the antithesis at the time of the 1975-77 Emergency, and his younger grandson Sanjay was exactly what he wanted to protect the nation against).

Forgive me for making this article to be an ode about Nehru, but I strongly feel that this is one of his greatest legacies. Belief that people can rule themselves through a representative democracy, without fear of failed democratic experiments in numerous other Asian countries is what he wanted to leave India with. The root problem with a presidential system of government is that it feeds dictatorship ambitions, it guarantees stability but it takes away instant accountability that a Prime Minister has to give. It gives an individual the ability to run the Executive without fear of the Legislature, but bears the risk of making a situation very similar to what was there at the Emergency. Some saw the Emergency as a time when trains ran on time, others (myself included) see it as a black mark on our political history.

We are not China. We cannot do something like the Three Gorges Dam. The stalled Narmada river project is more up our alley. We cannot sacrifice freedom for the price of economic development, something the Asian Tigers have done. We cannot give away our legacy, a system which prevents any one man from getting to much power. We have not performed exceptionally, but given our challenges, we have reacted satisfactorily.

This is India. And over here, we do things our way.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

India (Inc.) Shining




The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance's Government of 1999 to 2004, was extremely bullish about its chances for the 2004 General Elections. Vajpayee had a successful stint as the Prime Minister, and India had been performing well in terms of the economy (especially the growth in IT and Telecom), military retaliations against Pakistan (Tiger Hill, anyone?) and even sports (Paes-Bhupati were still a duo then, winning Grand Slams for fun).

Following 2003's bumper monsoon and the general national economic indicators improving, the NDA decided to launch an advertising blitzkrieg with the slogan of 'India Shining', with Rs. 400 crores of taxpayers money to put the proverbial money where the mouth is. But this article is not to dismiss 'India Shining', the voters of Indian public did that well enough, booting the NDA out of office and bringing the UPA in, and in general reminding everyone, that India is far from a success story - health, education and other social indicators still shackle it with the tag of a Third World Country. This article does not disagree with 'India Shining' at all; rather it points out that a mere typo proved to be so costly. You see, India isn't Shining. But India (Inc.) is.

For the less informed, the Indian media has dubbed the national corporate sector and the dominant companies as 'India Inc.'. When the Tata Group acquires Corus Steel or Jaguar, it is a signal of the growing dominance of India Inc. When Airtel and Reliance mobile penetrate the domestic telecommunications market, it shows that India Inc. has the capacity to generate the huge national population into huge corporate profits. When these companies pay taxes to the government and give back to the community in the form of Corporate Social Responsibility, it shows that when India Inc. does well, India does well. When call-centres sprout up around the country, it is an indicator of India Inc.'s entrepreneurship capabilities.

The growing might of India Inc. has led both the Government and the Industry (the Corporate Sector in general) to recognize it and try and free-ride this speeding bandwagon. An example of this is the increased clout of the CII (Confederation of Indian Indsutry) which has grown to become India's premier business association which is both industry-led and industry-managed with no government interference. More than 7500 companies hold direct memberships and 83,000 more have indirect associations with CII. The organization has seen tremendous growth after the 1991 liberalization reforms and as of now has 64 offices around India and 9 overseas offices in Australia, Austria, China, France, Germany, Japan, Singapore, the UK and the USA. However, no government interference does not mean that the government does not want to be associated with CII; this article is precisely about that: a partnership between the government and CII and how the promotion of India Inc. will be used to benefit national economic development.

The India Brand Equity Foundation is the brainchild of Government with Industry. It is a public-private partnership between the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). The Foundation's primary objective is to build positive economic perceptions of India globally. It aims to effectively present the India business perspective and leverage business partnerships in a globalizing market place.

The website (http://www.ibef.org/) is a crisp, elegant and well designed one. It contains useful information about the Indian economy; both on an overview level as well as on a detailed level. State-wise economic performance (from Andhra Pradesh to West Bengal) can be found with Reports and Presentations talking about economic indicators as well as crucial industries and sectors. Also, on a national level, information on all sectors are available - from Automobiles to Tourism & Hospitality.
For the first time, you can read about upcoming banking reforms in 2009 by the RBI, recent production trends of petroleum products and even highlights of the Interim Budget of 2009-10.

The Indian economy has finally started to hit top gear; and the IBEF aims to accompany it, advising potential investors and providing research-quality information about all aspects. Even at a Macro Political-Economic view, information is available regarding Trade relations between India and Japan / China / ASEAN and even the USA.

But most importantly, there is promotion of 'Brand India'. IBEF has launched a brochure, posters, panels and even images to advertise India to foreign investors and remind domestic residents about recent economic strides. To further this brand promotion, it has organized numerous events around the country. A small sample of some of these events - 'India-Russian Forum on Trade & Investment', 'Planning Commission Conference on PPP's in Infrastructure' and 'Conference on Natural Gas / LNG - The new options in power fuel basket'.

Using the tag-line of the 'Worlds Fastest Growing Free Market Democracy', IBEF has created a ripple among intellectuals, economists and businessmen, never before associated with India. IBEF is determined to create this new image, and has done an excellent job about doing this. It's India Resource Centre has launched numerous e-newsletters as well as news alerts which are customizable as per subscribers' wishes. Also, a bi-monthly publication 'India Now' has been launched which is trying to penetrate the non-IT savvy market.

The efforts of the IBEF are commendable. They have ensured that India's economic success is being showcased well, and a positive business-savvy image of the country is portrayed on a global stage. The Board of Trustees of the Foundation makes you see it a serious effort, with representation from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of External Affairs, CII, BCG (India), Infosys and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry.

'Brand India' is changing. Twenty years ago, the Indian Economy conjured up images of a lumbering elephant, big yet painfully slow, inefficient and arguably ineffective. IBEF's actions are causing this image to change, to an image that we aspire to: that of a lion ready to stake its claim as King of the Jungle.

India is not shining. But more on that later. For now, let us appreciate one fact. India Inc. is shining. And lets hope that it helps to pull up India.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Why Shashi Tharoor Is So Damn Good!



An excerpt from Shashi Tharoor's novel 'India - From Midnight to the Millenium and Beyond':

"There are many of us, but, among India's multitudes , we are few. We have grown up in the cities in India, secure a national identity rather than a local one, which we express in English better than in any Indian language. We rejoice in the complexity and diversity of our India, of which we feel a conscious part; we have friends of every caste and religious community, and we marry such sectarian lines. We see the poverty, suffering, and conflict in which a majority of our fellow citizens are mired, and we clamor for new solutions to these old problems, solutions we believe can come from the skills and efficiency of the modern world. We are secular, not in the sense that we are irreligious or unaware of the forces of religion, but in that we believe religion should not determine public policy or individual opportunity.

And, in Indian politics, we are pretty much irrelevant.

We dont get a look in. We dont enter the fray because we cant win. We tell ourselves ruefully that we are able, but not electable. We dont have the votes: there are too few of us, and we dont speak the idiom of the masses. Instead we have learned to talk about political issues without the expectation that we will be able to do anything about them.

Until Rajiv Gandhi, the accidental Prime Minister, came to power."

The first photograph shows Pandit Nehru with his young grandson Rajiv, not knowing that after almost forty years, the toddler would be leading his country as well. The second is a familiar picture of Rajiv Gandhi in power, a comforting sight to many educated Indians, but also a picture where you conclude that Indian politics is too foul for the clean hearted.



Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Mother India



With such a heading, you would expect this article to be about the woman on the right; India's third Prime Minister, daughter of the first, imposer of the Emergency and all round most recognizable woman in the country Indira Priyadarshini Gandhi. But this is not about her, it is about the woman in the centre, who was seen (at that time) as the last person to be India's most relevant political authority (arguably) on the Silver Jubilee of her mother-in-law's death.

Born in Lusiana, Italy, Sonia Maino met Rajiv Gandhi when she was studying at an English language institute in Cambridge, England. As Rajiv had no initial interest in politics and was more focused on being a pilot, both Sonia and himself where quite distant from the national political arena. Sonia was believed to have supported Rajiv's decision of not following his family's preferred profession and encouraged their private and slightly reclusive family life.

After the death of Rajiv in 1991, Sonia Gandhi remained the only surviving adult of the dominant Nehru-Gandhi family (Sanjay's widow Maneka famously left the household because of differences with the mother-in-law). At the time of the 1991 elections, the Congress, perhaps simply for guidance, turned towards her and encouraged her to enter politics. A firm denial derailed these succession plans, but she was not out of the minds of many Congress politicians. To them, she remained the flag-bearer of India's First Family, one who would not disappoint them and sooner or later, rise up to lead them. They were right.

in the 1991 elections, P.V Narasimha Rao was elected as the Congress President and with his minority government, remarkably lasted in his five year tenure as the nation's Prime Minister. But it was behind the scenes, that the wheels started creaking. The rise of Sonia Gandhi as an extraconstitutional source of power had begun. The last such person to wield such a role while remaining unelected was her late brother-in-law Sanjay, who according to one historian 'would have done to the country what he did to the plane, had he lived. (For those who didnt know the exact circumstances of death, it basically means flying the stunt plane upside down without even being licensed to sit in it')

In 1996, the murmurs rose again. When election time came, cries came for the famous bahu to take her party forward. She didnt do much on the face, but her role within was widening. There was no need of asking her in any case, the Congress lost the elections to the BJP, who in turn couldnt form the government leading to the introduction of disjointed coalition politics in India. 1998 was the moment it was official. She was elected the Congress President of India - the head of Indian Politics' historically most dominant party. The preceding 4 Congress Presidents were Sitaram Kesri, Narasimha Rao, Rajiv Gandhi and Indira Gandhi. Only Kesri did not become PM.

You can go today and ask any layman, who the most powerful person in India is. Chances are, he will tell you with a knowing look that the great economist is just a puppet, and with a sly grin add a caveat that Sonia Gandhi wields the power. And this is something that is today in 2000s taken for granted. But how exactly? How did an Italian-born, naturalized Indian citizen in 1983, with no initial political interest or desire for the public spotlight, reach this stage? Was it a change in mindset for her? Was it a desire to cleanse the system which dirtied the initially squeaky clean Prime Minister, her husband? Was it a desire to mould Rahul and Priyanka into future leaders by walking with them while holding their hands? Or was she a launched product of senior leaders, reminiscent of how 'the Syndicate' introduced Indira Gandhi has their 'goongi gudiya'. As always, we can never see the ingredients, but only the final result.

In 2004, when the UPA clinched a surprise win over the 'India Shining' BJP, the real shock was when she abdicated the Top Job to the noted economist Dr. Manmohan Singh. If making headlines was her intention, she got what she wanted. Various theories followed this decision that left even 'India Scholars' wide-eyed. The Opposition claimed it was a political stunt, and in hindsight, you would have to agree that it was a very smart one too. While cries were there that a person of non-Indian origin could not formally lead the country, there was no problems according to Constitutional Law. The media coverage of the abdication conference is still fresh in minds and it became a topic discussed by everyone: Why did she turn it down? While people disagreed in these reasons, they unanimously agreed that 10 Janpath had much more power than 7 Race Course Road, a daring suggestion, but one that can be made remarkably calmly today.

Even now. she remains the Congress President and the UPA Chairperson. Political Analysts speculate that if the UPA wins 2009, the Prime Ministerial portfolio will be decided as per her wishes - the Doctor, her son, herself or perhaps even another new surprise. The rise of her political significance is meteoric, and apart from a few, no one is aware of the inside story.

Why and how did the nation's bahu go on and take the cognomen of 'Mother India' from the earlier Mrs. Gandhi? We will never know, but can only watch which direction this dynasty takes.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Holy Hindutva



You would be forgiven easily if you claimed that you first heard the term 'Hindutva' in the late 1980s; that is the time that it was popularized and more importantly, politicized. But the concept is hardly new - Vinayak Damodar Savarkar coined the term when he wrote his treatise 'Hindutva: Who is a Hindu?'. Published under the name of 'Mahratta', the work was smuggled out of prison and espoused a never-before-seen promotion of Hindu social and political consciousness. Savarkar defined a 'Hindu' as a patriotic inhabitant of 'Bharatvarsha', venturing beyond simply a religious identity. It was meant to be a cultural and civilizational concept, and its supporters today repeat that fact, and even claim that it is not religious fundamentalism.

One could be forgiven to see the religious fundamentalism in 'Hindutva' today. Its biggest supporters have been the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), who can easily be described as far-right wing Hindu nationalists, who have even suffered the ignominy of actually being banned. The first time was in 1975 by Indira Gandhi, during her Emergency setting spree, but the second was under far graver circumstances - the aftermath of the 1992 Babri Masjid destruction (even though the actual destruction was done by members of an RSS offshoot, Vishva Hindu Parishad).

Hindus have enjoyed a large majority (always greater than 80%) in India and while communal relations can hardly be described as ideal, there are only a few flash points where there were serious internal red alerts. In such instance, the ears of the Hindu nationalists perked up, after hearing about the Shah Bano case.

When the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Shah Bano being granted alimony from her ex-husband, the Muslim community rose up in protest as they felt an encroachment on the Muslim Personal Law, which does not require the alimony payment. The then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, personally picked the case and took it to legislature, where the SC's decision was overturned and a new law was passed allowing Indian Muslims not to have the exact same laws as other Indians, for certain cases. Hindu Nationalists leapt in protest, at what they felt was 'pseudo-secularism' as well as a Congress electoral ploy to get the 'Muslim Vote'. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in its fledging state at the time, and took upon getting a 'Uniform Civil Code' for all Indians as part of its mandate.

The BJP has been described by few as the political wing of the RSS, and many fear that it is hardcore Hindu fundamentalist. However, after their stints in power, some of these fears were allayed and most now view it as a Centre-Right party. It derives its ideology from the RSS without a doubt, but also has proved to be extremely progressive (and arguably successful) in matters of the economy and national security.

'Hindutva' is the campaign slogan often used by party leaders - LK Advani, Narendra Modi and Rajnath Singh are key proponents of it. While the BJP quite recently (Feb 2009) made the claim that if it would return to power, it would rebuild the Ram temple at Ayodhya, its leaders were quick to point out that it would not do so if its coalition (NDA) came to power. Re-building the temple is part of its ideology and denying the chance, would alienate some of its hardcore supports. However, the BJP is practical enough to know that the chances of it forming an absolute majority with no coalition support is practically impossible, and leaving the situation at status quo would not alienate a crucial support base - the moderate, educated middle class Hindus. A point to be noted here, is that most of the BJP's support comes from the upper castes. Even though the BJP is trying to promote lower caste politics (a la the BSP), it does not contribute to the present day social democratization of India.

The 'Hindutva' concept is a loosely defined one, with parties alternating their vocal preferences for it. While the RSS is seen as the ideological head, other crucial parties for the 'Sangh Parivar' include the previously mentioned VHP, Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh, Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad and Bharatiya Kisan Sangh. There are also other political parties outside the Sangh Parivar, who are associated with Hindutva. They include the Akhil Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the Bharatiya Janshakti party, the Shiv Sena, and even the Sikh religious party of the Shiromani Akali Dal.

As mentioned before, the BJPs committment to Hindutva varies according to timing. It is aware that a far right Hindu nationalist party would have no electoral chance, and hence is actually quite centre-right in its functioning. However, it cannot distance itself from the far-right actions and statements of the RSS and the Shiv Sena, as it tied to them ideology. The difference can even be seen from leader to leader. Vajpayee stood for moderate Hindutva, while LK Advani is quite prominent. Narendra Modi is 'Hindutva's poster boy, yet Arun Jaitley seems hardly connected to it.

Herein lies the quandary of Modern Indian Politics. The BJP cannot strongly associate or dissociate itself from 'Hindutva' because Identity Politics still matter. At the same time, economic performance and governance cannot be ignored, and it makes winning the support of a majority to be a highly complex decision of which factors to concentrate on. Circa 2009, the BJP needs to make its positioning clear. The premier Opposition party needs to re-find its winning formula.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Return of the Brat



Independent India's only significant brush with authoritarianism came during Indira Gandhi's Emergency of 1975-77, largely believed to have been inspired by the ideals of her younger son, Sanjay Gandhi. The race car driving, stunt plane flying and power hungry Sanjay never held an elected post in his life, but that never stopped him from exercising control in any way he saw fit. With no college education and no interest in anything apart from politics (unlike his brother Rajiv who shunned the spotlight initially and was content being an airline pilot), he chose to remain by his mother when she was Prime Minister and was rumored to have an extraordinary influence over her, leading to many undemocratic decisions. The brash Sanjay was accused of forced sterilization (his answer to solve the growing population problem), massive corruption (through the 1971 'People's Car' contract) and generally causing mayhem with his cronies (anecdotes include being caught for stealing a car in London). Indian Politics' Original Brat was seen as many as a future leader, irrespective of peoples wishes. His dictatorial plans were cut shot however, as he plunged to his death from a stunt aircraft (which he was not authorized / licensed to fly) at the age of 34.

He was survived by his 3-month old son, Varun Feroze Gandhi. Varun Gandhi grew up in a less headline-snatching way than his father, and went on to the London School of Economics and the School of Oriental and African studies to complete an impressive education in economics and law.

In 2004, at the age of 24, Varun decided to enter the political arena and shocked everyone by joining the ideological opposites of his family's Congress Party (quite literally his family's party - from his great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru to even his father arguably), the Bharatiya Janata Party. At the time his mother Maneka (estranged from her mother-in-law Indira and the rest of the family) was a BJP candidate and this was believed to have influenced Varun's decision.

However, of late, Varun Gandhi does not at all look like a misfit to the BJP. To the extent that he currently resembles an RSS man, a hardcore Hindutva supporter who went as far as to speak inflammatory remarks against Muslims during his electoral speeches in his contested constituency of Pilibhit. On 16 March 2009, several Indian newspapers carried headlines of how Varun Gandhi's shocking speeches have the potential to cause massive communal clashes. There were articles about many BJP leaders distancing themselves from Varun as well as such hardcore views. Opposition political parties clamored to the Election Commission for a ban, and at the time of writing, the Pilibhit Police have even registered an official case against him for allegedly 'making inflammatory speeches with an intention to create enmity among people on the basis of religion'.

And it is only today that you will realize that Varun Feroze Gandhi truly is the son of Sanjay Gandhi. The action is typically Sanjay-esque. Brash, polarizing and perhaps most importantly, headline-snatching. A cynical opinion might also be to indicate that the BJP is in on this, the media is carrying publicity of this everywhere. TV Debates, online discussions the most favored print articles, are simply talking about the BJP Young Leader's gall to make such remarks. Varun may simply even be playing an electoral game here. With an 81% Hindu population, he can afford to alienate sections of Hindus, and still be able to make the arithmetic work in his favor.

The current discussion is definitely a hot one. While these speeches can cause far reaching damaging consequences to India's internal communal harmony (or lack of), the decision reeks of Sanjay Jr, a ploy to seize attention and ultimately, power.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

The Top Job



CNN-IBN's article on the race for India's Prime Ministerial post (http://ibnlive.in.com/news/advani-manmohan-lead-race-for-indias-pm/87709-37.html) is an interesting one, and makes for an interesting debate.

The Big Two are the ones who dominate the front page headlines even now, the current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh along with the current Leader of the Opposition, L.K. Advani. The incumbent is a politician better known for his time as the Finance Minister during P.V Narsimaha Rao's tenure, where his package of liberalization, privatization and globalization greatly rescued the ailing Indian economy (circa 1991) and laid the foundations for its current achievements. Yet his nomination as the Prime Minister in 2004 by Sonia Gandhi was largely met with skepticism regarding his political ambitions, many believed it was a ploy by Sonia Gandhi to win the peoples hearts, whereas still maintaining power via this 'puppet'. Dr. Singh, to his credit, has proved tougher that many initially thought; the victory in the No-Confidence Motion following the withdrawal of the Left as well some harsh personal remarks have deterred the 'puppet' image to some extent. Yet many critics remain unconvinced about his power within the Congress, leave alone the UPA, and feel that nothing will ever be done against the will of Rajiv Gandhi's widow. Of course, doubts remain about his health whether he will be fit to carry on for another term, but more important public support for him as the Prime Minister is a doubt. While universally respected, many feel he is the ideal choice for being the Finance Minister. The fact remains that Manmohan Singh as never won a Lok Sabha seat in his entire life, and continues to look like an economist in a politicians seat.

Advani on the other hand, does not face these problems, but instead counters other issues. Historically, the BJPs No. 2 man, after Vajpayee, Advani has also struggled to assert his dominance over the party. His Hindutva hardliner status alienates him from some portion of the party's support and age is an even bigger factor for him. But the most significant point is that the BJP under Advani is less likely to attract lies, than when it was under Vajpayee. Historical supporters like Jayalalithaa, Omar Abdullah and Ram Vilas Paswan have left the BJP in the Advani-years and hence, his capability as a statesman can be doubted.

Apart from these two contenders, name that seem to sprout up include Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, and Pranab Mukherjee. Sonia Gandhi would hardly be considered the post, as it clearly seems as she does not want it. Of course if the UPA does win the elections, there would be no stopping her if she decided to change her mind.

Mayawati, is a far more interesting case. Her rise to power has been dramatic, with her party (Bahujan Samaj Party) being able to capture India's most populous state Uttar Pradesh. The BSP has gone from being a small, no hope party to one of the the newest and most dynamic ones. Unfortunately for many educated Indians, the party represents a lot that is wrong about India, particularly the caste based politics. Mayawati takes identity politics to a whole other level, campaigning as a 'daughter of a Dalit'. The Dalits, formerly untouchables, have hardly enjoyed equal rights in the nation even after independence. Political inequality has often simply been a 'pipe dream' for them, and Mayawati has exploited this fact to mobilize the masses. While traditionally low in in power, this pool has strong numbers, which makes for good electoral arithmetic. Many of the educated English speaking middle class are quite against Mayawati, and cite her numerous allegations of corruption as reasons why a politician like her should not be trusted. But in a parliamentary democracy, the will of the people is what works. And even if she alienates the English speaking class, her vote bank might just have enough to take her past the finish line. Rumours also persist that she would be the face of a non-Congress and non-BJP government, i.e. the Third Front. On a personal note, someone of high repute in this field staked his reputation on the fact that by 2015, Mayawati will be India's Prime Minister. I would put my money on him.

Mayawati, unlike many of her contemporaries, has time on her side and is part of a party that is growing annually, and not shrinking from past glories. Year by year, she has steadily been growing in political importance. The BSP's electoral symbol of an elephant might just prove to be representative of its weight in the political arena. GE 2009, isnt a do-or-die for Mayawati. She can play her cards right, and set up alliances in such a way, that at the time of GE 2014, she has much better odds. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

The list of other candidates can be studied now, by first looking at Sharad Pawar. The leader of the NCP has acquired a reputation of being a political heavyweight, one who many coalitions look towards getting support from. Rumours also persist that he is adamant on getting the PM seat, and he would mostly likely pursue this ambition in a Deve Gowda-esque way, where he would try his luck even with his party securing a few seats in the Lok Sabha. (Deve Gowda barely got a dozen seats with his Janata Dal, but was able to become leader of the United Front) Pawar plays his Maharashtrian Identity card perhaps a bit too strongly; as the Director of the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Research Foundation Tarun Vijay states 'We need an Indian Prime Minister, not a Maharashtrian one'.

Rahul Gandhi's mention as a candidate is more often made by political novices, who assume that his surname automatically qualifies him to be the country's leader. While it is hard to completely dismiss that logic, India definitely has moved ahead of the times where it would simply bow down to a dynastic pattern. The fact of the matter is that Rahul Gandhi himself is a political novice, who was not proved himself, as being able to take his own party by the helm, leave alone the country. Rajiv Gandhi's son is greatly influenced by his mother, and even though she may have Prime Ministerial ambitions for him, it is unlikely she will want them to be completed in 2009.

Narendra Modi's handling of Gujarat, has lead to many voicing their desire for him to be promoted from state level to the national level. His hardline attitude towards Muslims, wins him some support from some Hindus, but real merit points include his administration's excellent track record of economic growth, quick reaction to the earthquake and strong anti-terrorist measures. Modi, however, remains a very controversial figure and it would be highly unlikely whether the BJP would turn towards him at this point.

Lastly, the growing stature of the Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee has led many to earmark him as the Dark Horse. He is one of the few Cabinet Ministers whose stock has actually risen during the UPA's term. The Editor-in-Chief of Outlook, Vinod Mehta, offers an interesting opinion: 'He (Mukherjee) is the diwan to the king, but the diwan can never be made the king'.

But the beauty of Indian Politics (Representative Parliamentary Democracy) allows almost anyone to become the Prime Minister, the only criteria to be satisfied being that the party / coalition in power must anoint him / her as their leader. This is what leaves the door open to all possibilities. Who knows? We might be in for a real shocker.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

A Good Link

For a nice summary of how the Indian political game works, have a look at -

http://indiauncut.com/iublog/article/the-hypocrisy-of-indian-politics/

Well written and concise, this piece clearly explains the importance of Identity in Indian Politics.

The Third Front - Coming of Age Finally?

Was it inevitable? Were the Congress and BJP too complacent in thinking that the Indian elections was going to a battle of the heavyweights between them, with other parties simply providing bulk to the 2 behemoths? Was there no other competition on the horizon?

You probably wouldnt fault them for thinking so: the 2004 elections saw the Congress and BJP winning 26.7% and 25.4% of the seats in the Lok Sabha respectively. The contest was mostly about adding more parties to the UPA and the NDA, and when the UPA captured the support of the Left, Sonia Gandhi was invited to take power as Leader of the Government.

The Congress has however, failed to really capitalize on its position of power. India's anti-incumbency trend seems quite sure to hit them, where the electorate simply removes the party in power for failure to fulfill their initial promises. While the UPA managed to withstand the withdrawal of the the Left (over the Indian-US Nuclear Agreement) by winning the No-Confidence motion, 26/11 and the poor following response might just be the death knell. The victors of the 1999 elections, the BJP (through the NDA) have themselves experienced India's penchant for anti-incumbency, when their 'India Shining' campaign spectacularly backfired and had them sitting in the Opposition. Ordinarily, the BJP would be expected by most pundits to take this election. Preference for a more liberalized and capitalistic economy coupled with a hardliner stance towards terrorism should have put them in pole position. However, the BJP suffers from a lack of leadership, with LK Advani remaining the sole Prime Ministerial Candidate. Due to old age and poor health, the popular AB Vajpayee will hardly be able to lead for another term, whereas the demise of the General Secretary Pramod Mahajan, the leader of the Young BJP, ensures that the BJP is not as strong as before.

And within all this, the Third Front has risen. The idea of a Non-Congress and Non-BJP government seems less than absurd now; many view it as plausible and a few even see it as desirable. So who exactly are joining hands to make GE 2009 a tripartite contest? Well, as per the announcement on 12th March at Tumkur, Karnataka, the following parties will be part of the Third Front:
Janata Dal (Secular), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, Revolutionary Socialist Party, Forward Bloc, Telugu Desam Party, AIADMK, Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the Bahjuan Samaj Party

To put them into a more familiar context, some of the party leaders include:
HD Deve Gowda, Prakash Karat, AB Bardhan, K Chandrashekhar, Jayalalitha and last, but perhaps the most important, Mayawati.

Not a bad list, is it? A former Prime Minister, the General Secretary of India's premier communist party and Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu as well as the Nation's most important political state Uttar Pradesh. Definitely not one to be dismissed easily.

The biggest dilemma the Third Front would face would be regarding the Prime Ministerial Candidate. A clash of egos for the top job, would destroy the bloc's chances, and the sooner consensus can be reached for a candidate, the stronger the Third Front's chances. Mayawati has been touted by many as a possible candidate, but other leaders will not give in so easily.

Will such a party be good for India? Will it break the hegemony of the Congress and the BJP and give Indians the government they have always been yearning for? Or will it be one huge mess dominated by increasing caste politics and taking the economy towards its socialist (less free) roots again?

The answer as always can only be determined in the last year of a Lok Sabha's tenure; whether it has done enough to win successive elections? The BJP thought they had done impressively; the voters thought otherwise. Will the Congress face the same fate?

The case for a Third Front has never been stronger. And the parties themselves, have never been in a better place individually. I tip them to win. Will they do well? Honestly, go toss a coin.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Random Musings - II





GE 2009 - Poll Dates!

Jammu and Kashmir and Uttar Pradesh will have polls on all five dates.

Bihar: April 16, 23, 30 and May 7.

Maharashtra: April 16, 23, and 30.

West Bengal: April 30, May 7 and 13.

Andhra Pradesh: April 16 and 23.

Assam: April 16 and 23.

Karnataka: April 23 and 30.

Madhya Pradesh: April 23 and 30.

Manipur: April 16 and 23.

Orissa: April 16 and 23.

Punjab: May 7 and 13.

Jharkhand: April 16 and 23.

Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Chhattisgarh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep will have a single-phase poll on April 16.

Goa and Tripura will have one-day poll on April 23.

Gujarat, Sikkim, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu will have one-day poll on April 30.

Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan will have a one-day poll on May 7.

Himachal Pradesh , Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand , Chandigarh and Puducherry will have polling on May 13.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

The Last Englishman to Rule India - I




In close to around 2 centuries of rule by the British, India has had its fair share of English rulers. Governors, Governor-Generals, Viceroys and figuratively, the Emperor / Empress of India were the different titles accorded to the British who wielded their power over Hindustan. But who exactly was that Last Englishman in power? Lord Louis Mountbatten?

Not quite. Pandit Nehru gave himself this moniker; the Harrow educated son of a wealthy barrister was not the archetypal 'son of the soil', as many of his contemporaries were. Nehru was more English than Indian in his customs and behavior, and was more at ease with his Western counterparts. His reputation of being a gentleman was indeed true and this often was shown in the political arena with his friends and foes.

17. Thats the number of years Nehru was India's Prime Minister. In hindsight, its easy to say that he was the best choice for the job, the only practical choice. But pre-independence, this was not true. His competitors had often got the better of him, and Nehru might not even have gotten close to being considered for the post he later held. The 1946 Congress Presidential election is an example of this. The person chosen for this would go on to lead Free India. Out of the 16 state votes, Nehru only won 3. The remaining 13 were won by Sardar Vallabhai Patel, who was considered by many to be a statesman superior to Nehru. As we all know, Patel did not go on to lead. And that is because Gandhi asked him to step aside in favor of Nehru; a tactic that had been used in the past, and a point often cited by Nehru's detractors. Patel would serve as the country's Home Minister and was credited with many achievements, with the Political integration of India standing out as his crowning glory.

But the uncertainity about Nehru's abilities faded rather quickly after coming into power. After Patel's death, he established himself as India's undoubted leader, and as the first Prime Minister, he made decisions (good or bad, to be discussed later) that would still have a great impact even fifty years after.

Nehru's tenure certainly was eventful, and probably because he was faced with issues only a newly freed democratic country could have. During his time, he oversaw the Kashmir situation, introduced Socialist Economic Planning through the Five Year Plans, set up institutions of higher learning for Science & Technnology, improved primary education country-wide and lost a war against China. Other less tangible achievements included giving Indians an Identity of India, successfully Integrating an eclectic mix of people belonging to all religions, castes, creeds and reagions and finally, and perhaps most importantly, ensuring that Indian democracy was not a distant dream, but a reality.

Kashmir is an Issue that has grown exponentially in political significance since Nehru's time. Wars with Pakistan were fought by his successors (Shastri & Indira) for this very reason, and in the modern millenium, the State has become focal point of dispute between India and Pakistan.
Nehru is often blamed for this problem, but is this blame justified?

Kashmir @ 1947 was ruled by Hari Singh. But having a Hindu ruler in a state with a 77% majority Muslim population was asking for trouble, at the time of the Partition. While Jinnah and his counterparts assumed that it would be a part of Pakistan, Hari Singh had other plans. He tried, in vain, for a while not to join either country, but that was no longer a realistic option. When Pakistani raiders invaded Kashmir to frighten him into submission, he contacted Governor General Mountbatten. Indian troops were offered to help him, but on the condition that Kashmir would acede to India. Vallabhai Patel's right hand man, V P Menon, was sent to get the Instrument of Accession signed. This document is of utmost importance, as it legitimizes India's claim over Kashmir - evidence that the independent sovereign ruler was in favor of his state becoming wholly a part of the Indian Union.

Many point a finger at Nehru for his next act - Approaching the United Nations, something that was recommended by Lord Mountbatten, possibily to get the International Community on the side of the country in this territorial dispute. The decision made by the UN was perhaps quite unanticipated - it has failed to recognize Pakistan as the aggressor. Its only recommendation for to hold a plebiscite (a referendum), but that was not feasible given the various objections that Jinnah, Nehru and others, brought up at various times. The plebiscite ultimately never took place, and most people never forgave Nehru for taking this dispute to an international arena. But in all fairness, Mountbatten and Nehru jointly believed that the UN would make a positive (for India) decision and that the Instrument of Accession was enough to keep Pakistan quiet forever. Is Kashmir a failing of Nehru's wrongdoing? Perhaps not, but the responsibility always falls on the throne.

(To be continued)