GE 2009: The Politikal Prediction

Its that time of the decade again. The General Elections are here, with the first phase of voting having taken place yesterday (May 16). The nation waits with baited breath for its next Government, for a new set of policies impacting the economy, every state and every citizen in some way or the other.

After studying each state, and looking back at GE 2004's results, these are my predictions for the 2009 Indian General Elections:

UPA - 221 seats
NDA - 188 seats
Third Front - 91 seats
BSP - 32 seats
Others - 10 seats
Total - 542 seats

Mayawati is going to play the role of 'kingmaker' this time. While she will not become the Prime Minister this time (Third Front + BSP = 133 seats), both the UPA and the NDA will be courting her for the stronghold she'll have over Uttar Pradesh.

The most likely scenario seems for the UPA to invite the BSP to join. However, such a combination will only produce 221 + 32 = 253, still under the magic figure of 272. The remaining 20-odd seats will be extremely difficult to get, with almost no option of the Left backing the UPA this time. Do note, I have included Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Laloo Prasad Yadav's RJD as partners of the Congress in the UPA. In case they do not join, expect the UPA to have a 180-odd seats, with almost no hope of forming government.

While I expect the BJP to do quite well, the NDA overall wont be much of a threat because of lost coalition partners. The split with Navin Patnaik's BJD in Orissa and Chandrababu Naidu's TDP in Andhra Pradesh will cost it about 25-odd votes.

The Left's stronghold over Kerala and West Bengal for a major chunk of the Third Front's 91 expected seats. Other useful contributors will be the PMK in Tamil Nadu, BJD in Orissa, the JD(S) in Karnataka. High chances are that the UPA and NDA will both try and obliterate this loose alliance, and try and get as many coalition partners as possible. But it is going to take a lot of convincing to get the 50-odd seats of the Left to join either coalition.

I predict drama. Crazy coalitions. Newspapers and media channels dedicating more time to it than even the 'Abhi-Ash' wedding. The UPA has an edge over the NDA, but simply because of number of coalition partners. The BJP will beat the Congress party-for-party, but will have to try hard to get allies. The BSP is unpredictable; expect it's alliance to be revealed right at the end and to also be the most decisive one.

Logic suggests no government to be formed. 272 is hard to get in a three-way split Parliament. Then again, logic and Indian elections never go together.

Jai Hind.